Grote prijzenoorlog aan de pomp

[jozef]

Grote prijzenoorlog aan de pomp

Na de diesel spurt de benzineprijs naar een nieuw record. [...]

http://www.gva.be/nieuws/geldzaken/aid1122037/prijzenoorlog-aan-de-pomp.aspx

[Michel]

Ze spreken al van 150 dollar/vat ttz  prijzen van ~ 2 € zullen tegen de volgende winter mogelijk zijn, mss al vroeger als ze Iran nog meer ambeteren, of onder het mom dat "Iran geambeteerd wordt", kunnen olieexporterende landen dat feit misbruiken om de kas bij te vullen...  

uit Oman, een week geleden:

http://www.muscatdaily.com/Archive/Business/Hormuz-disruption-could-boost-oil-price-to-150-S-P

Hormuz disruption could boost oil price to $150: S&P

15/02/2012 11:52 am

Iran might respond to sanctions with 'low-level provocation' such as slowing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices at their currently high level, according to three Standard & Poor’s (S&P) reports.

The likelihood of severe disruption of oil supplies through the strait, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil flows, is 'very low,' though if one did occur, it might boost oil to US$150 a barrel and push economies into a recession, according to the reports.

“For oil-producing sovereigns of the Gulf Cooperation Council - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and to a lesser extent, Bahrain - higher oil prices would actually be beneficial,” said Elliot Hentov, an S&P credit analyst in Dubai. “As oil exporters, they would receive more foreign earnings that they could either use to stimulate demand or improve their government’s balance sheets.”

Speaking earlier to Muscat Daily, Robin Mills, energy economist with Emirates National Oil Company, said Oman has a particular advantage over other Gulf countries, in it being outside the Strait of Hormuz. Its exports are less vulnerable to military action.

He said, “A reduction or re-targeting of Iranian oil exports might increase the price that Gulf oil exporters can expect. Certainly tensions have been increasing prices in recent weeks.

“However, since Oman does not have spare production capacity, it is not able to increase its overall exports, unlike Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or UAE.”

Iranian authorities could disrupt supplies of oil from the Arabian Gulf by imposing tanker inspections or boarding merchant ships in its territorial waters, supporting oil prices because markets would increasingly view armed conflict as “a real, if remote, possibility,” according to the S&P reports’ authors, who include Paris-based Jean-Michel Six, S&P’s chief economist for Europe.

The US and the European Union are imposing tougher sanctions on Iran and Israel has talked of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in an attempt to halt its nuclear programme. Iran, which says its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes, has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation.
- With inputs from Bloomberg

De 120 $ per vat is duidelijk overschreden voor de Brent (deze icharts veranderen elke dag)
 Brent - Noordzee                                                                                                  

West Texas Intermediate

[sniper]

Ze spreken al van 150 dollar/vat ttz  prijzen van ~ 2 € zullen tegen de volgende winter mogelijk zijn,

een vat is nog steeds goedkoper dan de vorige keer
de prijs is echter hoger
er gebeurt op verschillende niveaus georganiseerde diefstal
en de belg ondergaat het allemaal zonder protest

[Michel]

Ze spreken al van 150 dollar/vat ttz  prijzen van ~ 2 € zullen tegen de volgende winter mogelijk zijn,

een vat is nog steeds goedkoper dan de vorige keer

Idd in dollar.

de prijs is echter hoger

Idd het vat is duurder in EURO, sinds 15 februari, en nu nog wat meer, want de vatprijs Brent steeg van 118 naar > 122,4 dollar ondertussen, terwijl de euro-$ koers nauwelijks verbeterde.
http://www.christophoros.be/nl/forum/index.php/topic,3235.msg38328.html#msg38328

En bovenop de duurdere prijs van ruwe olie een sterkere dollar, hoe EXTRA meer we dat gaan voelen aan de pomp.

De dollar staat nu duidelijk sterker (~ + 10 % ) als verleden lente- en zomermaanden: 1 euro is nu = 1,3232 dollar
Ge kunt beter zeggen de € is verzwakt door dat PIGS-gedoe (en extra steun aan Griekenland)
of 1 dollar = 0,76 euro  zie 1 jaar grafisch


Toen de dollar een stuk zwakker was in april mei 2011, was de vatprijs in dollar idd iets hoger (+ 2 %) met ~124 $/vat :
Jaargrafiek Brent Oil:

http://www.beursduivel.be/aandeel-Brent_Oil.koersen

MAAR stond de dollar een stuk zwakker met 1,44 á 1,48 dollarpiek voor 1 €.
Dus 10 % zwakkere dollar toen en 2 % duurdere vatprijs toen is nog altijd rekenkundig 8 % duurdere ruwe olie in EURO nu.

Jaargrafiek dollarkoers-euro:   nu 1 euro = ~  1,323 dollar (hoe meer dollar voor 1 euro hoe zwakker de $)


Toch een (oudere) grafiek gevonden - en de voorspellende tekst is er boenk op - , beide lijnen natuurlijk doortrekken de Brentolie schommelt licht stijgend nu bij zowat *92-93 € ipv 88,88 in de grafiek.  (* Brent/vat 122,4 $ /1,323 wisselkoers = 92,5 € )  
Ook de voormalige recordpiek in 2008 is geknakt de 15 februari 2012 (maar 2008 scheelt ook 4 jaar inflatie)

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/09/823191/euro-crisis-brent-oil-edition/
Euro crisis, Brent oil edition

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 09 12:12.

That would be echoes of the 2008 record oil price. This time, only for Europe.
As Jakob notes:

There is currently not one day where we do not publish the chart of Brent in Euro/bbl and this is because we do think that the record prices for oil in Euro/bbl will be the next leg of the European crisis. The current record oil prices for European consumers will morph into a new energy crisis for Europe and it will hit both consumer sentiment and disposable income right at the time when austerity measures will kick in.

The combination of the Iranian premium and of the Dollar premium will be a kiss of death for European oil demand but also for European global consumption. Because of the Iranian risk premium the correlations between the price of oil and the Euro/Dollar have totally broken down, but the oil correlations to the S&P500 are still extremely high. If we were running with the same Euro/Dollar correlations as in October, Brent today will be priced at 96.00 $/bbl ie at a 17 $/bbl discount to current levels.

In other words, Europe has completely decoupled from the rest of the world in terms of energy prices.

All of which presents a big problem for European refineries:
Petroplus has now lost all its credit lines and without credit lines it will be difficult for the Swiss holding to continue operating its German and British refineries. Petroplus is unfortunately not the only refinery to fall to the poor processing economics. The Lyondell refinery in Berre, France (105 mbpd) is being mothballed and Repsol decided last week to shut one CDU (110 mbpd) and the FCC at its Bilbao, Spain refinery for at least one month due to collapsing demand and poor refining margins.

In this difficult environment for European refineries we are supposed to believe that the Greek refineries that are currently running with 64% of their crude intake from Iran (due to the flexible credit conditions given by that country) will continue to run once an embargo is in place? Greece is trying to bargain an official support for the embargo in exchange for a long grace period but we are not sure that Iran will be a happy provider of “grace barrels”; hence we have to account a closing risk for the Greek refineries. If the Spanish refineries are having a tough time to currently run we do not see how the Greek refineries without Iran will do better than the Spanish.

Just what Europe needs, eh?

er gebeurt op verschillende niveaus georganiseerde diefstal
en de belg ondergaat het allemaal zonder protest

"Protest" hoor ik ondertussen toch voldoende hoor, de ganse dag wordt er geklaagd op media en krant en aan de pomp...

Politiek protest is natuurlijk wat anders, want de staat gaat er niet persé aan verliezen, eerder winnen als iedereen evenveel tankt als voordien... ttz de pendelaars zijn de hoofddupe. (toch die waar het OV geen fatsoenlijk alternatief is)

De omgekeerde cliquetregeling gaan de politiekers niet terug invoeren in deze tijden...  

En zoals ik de laatste weken meer de beurs gevolgd heb gaat de Euro ook niet sterker worden tov de dollar, dus het ziet er niet goed uit.
En dan gaan die EU-dommerikken (miserie met de PIGS landen al genoeg) ook nog eens meehuilen met de VS qua sancties tegen Iran.
De EU blijkt namelijk de grootste dupe van die sancties (ook door de zwakke euro tov de dollar).
De VS is een spelletje bezig met de EU, en Brussel kijkt ernaar.  

Volgens Canvas-uitzending van gisteren zijn een deel EU-financiers van Italie en Griekenland (zelfs nu baas in Italie en Griekenland) vroeger managers geweest bij Goldman Sachs...  

Enkele reacties op twitter voorweg: http://twitter.com/#!/search?q=%23terzaketv  van de uitzending van gisteren.

TweetsTop / Alle10h  Fred Lebowski @vortex155

#goldmansachs it was a great idea, drop your immense USA debts in Europe, they still don't understand how real kapitalism works. #terzaketv

10h  Fred Lebowski @vortex155

#goldmansachs got many response on twitter, is there a crisis going on somewhere perhaps ? #terzaketv #tegenlicht

16h  Sofia. @Ssofie_

Wow interessante reportage #terzaketv

20h  K Vandermeersch @Kristof_vdm

Shocking #goldmansachs #terzaketv

20h  Arne Vandendriessche @ArneVdd

Goldman Sachs rules the World? #terzaketv

20h  POSTRmagazine @POSTRmagazine

Hey daar hebben we Goldman Sachs weer! Leave it up to GS to get rich when countries go bankrupt. #terzaketv

21/2/2012
http://terzake.canvas.be/category/uitzending/

De bankier van God.

Goldman Sachs, is niet de rijkste bank van de wereld, wel de machtigste. Topman Lloyd Blankfein is opgegroeid in een getto en voert naar eigen zeggen het werk van God uit. Ook Loukas Papadimos stond er ooit op de loonlijst, de man die Griekenland uit de crisis moet redden. Vreemd toch. Want uitgerekend Goldman Sachs is een kei in het opsmukken van begrotingen. Een reportage van de collega’s van Brandpunt.

http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Blankfein

VOLG de VIDEO

ook :

http://terzake.canvas.be/uitzending/1612-de-mistige-wereld-van-goldman-sachs/

16/12: De mistige wereld van Goldman Sachs

Een geheim genootschap.

God – zo beweren gelovigen – heeft het universum geschapen. Maar als het klopt heeft hij het vast gefinancierd via Goldman Sachs, niet de rijkste, wel de machtigste bank van de wereld. Mario Draghi, Mario Monti en Loukas Papadimos stonden er ooit op de loonlijst. Zij die de euro moeten redden, waren dus zelf verantwoordelijk voor het ondermijnen ervan. Want het opleuken van begrotingen blijkt een specialiteit van de bank. Steven Decraene bewerkt een reportage van de collega’s van Brandpunt.

[Inazuma]

However, since Oman does not have spare production capacity,

Niemand heeft reserve-capaciteit.

Ondanks stevige prijsstijgingen (o.m. in 2008) is de produktie toen niet toegenomen (meerinkomsten voor de olieproducenten) : er is geen extra olie.
(Peak-oil)

Tot pakweg 1980 zie je een enorme stijging, nadien is die heel wat minder, en vlakt de curve af.


en

[Michel]

Het kan zelfs een goede zaak zijn voor Iran:

(en als het zo verder gaat met de prijzen heeft "het Westen" met dat prutsembargo los door hun eigen voet geschoten)

http://news.yahoo.com/eu-ban-iran-oil-may-bonus-tehrans-fields-115145443.html

EU ban on Iran oil may be bonus to Tehran's fields

By Peg Mackey | Reuters – 1 hr 6 mins ago..

LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's ban on Iranian oil, aimed at piling pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program, may end up breathing new life into the country's aging oilfields, Western and Iranian oil experts said on Friday.

If Iran were forced to shut in any - or all - of some 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply that would have gone to customers in the European Union, such a move would help rejuvenate, not harm, the Islamic Republic's oil reservoirs.

There is a widespread expectation among oil traders and shipping brokers that Tehran will float much of the displaced European oil on tankers, because it does not want to shut in output and wreck the reservoirs.

But in actual fact, slowing Iran's current production of 3.5 million bpd would be the best thing for its overworked reserves, say veteran geologists. And in the short term, the National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) may end up doing just that while it works to re-route the oil.

"Iran can shut in 10 to 20 percent of its production without damaging the reservoirs: in fact, it will do them some good," said Peter Wells of geological consultancy Neftex Petroleum. "If it's done properly, shutting in the oilfields should be beneficial as it allows the pressure to build back up."

Wells has first-hand knowledge of Iran's oilfields through his work with Lasmo, now part of Eni, which has invested in the country. He was confident that Iranian engineers would be up to the task, because they have closed down parts of their fields before for routine maintenance.

"If pushed, Iran could shut in about 500,000 barrels a day without doing any harm," said Mehdi Varzi of UK-based Varzi Energy. "But if a forced shut in were to drop output below 3 million, there could be problems in certain fields," said the former NIOC official.

Although the EU embargo kicks in on July 1, buyers of Iranian oil already are scaling back, and big customers in Asia have also reduced purchases, leaving Tehran scrambling to find new homes for around 500,000 bpd starting from March.

OPEC's second-biggest producer expects to place those barrels with relative ease and in any case would be loath to turn down the taps, lose revenue and look as if it were caving in to sanctions.

Its current output allows for exports of about 2.2 million bpd.

FLEXIBLE FIELDS

Other Western oil experts with companies that have tapped Iran's reserves agreed with Wells.

"Those fields are fairly flexible," said one of the executives. "You might find when you start them up again it's a bit easier."

Iranian engineers have been battling for years to get the best out of Iran's oilfields.

But their capacity has slumped from just above 4 million bpd several years ago as Western sanctions have prevented it from securing urgently needed investment from foreign oil companies or financing from foreign banks for its oilfields.

An Iranian official said Iran expected to maintain its oil sales, rather than curb its output.

"Generally the market is big enough to absorb our crude," said Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's representative on the board of governors of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Taking up to 500,000 bpd off the market would cost Tehran little. A 17 percent gain in crude prices since December would largely offset the decline in exports in terms of lost revenue.

And the calculation in Tehran may be that any decline in its production will make oil more costly in the West. Oil above $120 a barrel is close to the maximum pain threshold for the economies of the developed world.